dynamics

System Dynamics

Materials in System Dynamics with Vensim
Contents of the CD

Vensim

Contains Vensim PLE 6.0 which needs installing to the hard drive. Approximately 5 MB of free space is required

DOCUMENTS

- Contains:
1. Appendix to Peter Senge's book "The Fifth Discipline".
2. Check list of possible criticisms of a model.
3. Documentation Appendices
- Bibliography
- Employment Offers
- Project folder index

PROJECTS

Contains over 250 projects chosen as a complement to the various parts of the course (See explanation below). They are in Acrobat format, so this program must be installed previously.

DEMOS
Contains the Stella and Ithink demo programs. The student can download them to his hard drive if he wishes to compare the benefits of different software developers.


Details of some complementary reading materials that are included on the CD (more than 150 Mb).

INTRODUCTORY ARTICLES

Building a System Dynamics Model. Part 1. Conceptualization
Stephanie Albin
A text that highlights the fact that the process of creating a model begins in the first phase: conceptualization.
36 pages.

System Dynamics Meets the Press, an excerpt from The Global Citizen
Donella Meadows
Account of an expert's experiences in System Dynamics and her efforts to effectively use its concepts in today's society.
12 pages.

Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems
Jay W. Forrester
An introduction to System Dynamics concepts, discussing social politics and the repercussions inherent in the incomplete understanding of complex systems.
29 pages.

GENERIC STRUCTURES

Introduction to the feedback systems
Leslie A. Martin
This is an introduction to the physical and social systems that feature feedback in their structure, with abundant examples.
44 pages

Generic Structures: First order positive feedback loops
Stephanie Albin and Mark Choudhari
An introduction to the generic structure of positive feedback systems.
19 pages.

Generic Structures: First order negative feedback loops
Stephanie Albin
An introduction to the generic structure of negative feedback systems
22 pages.

Generic Structures: Oscillating Systems
Celeste Chung
Two real-life situations that illustrate the transferability of an oscillating structure.
24 pages.

Generic Structures: Overshoot and Collapse
Lucia Breierova
An introduction to generic structures that induce overshooting and collapse, using various real life examples.
40 pages.

Generic Structures: S-shaped growth
Terri Duhon and Marc Glick
An introduction to the generic structures that induce logistical growth.
30 pages.

COMPLEX SYSTEMS

Beginner Modeling Exercises. Section 1. Answers to Beginner Modeling Exercises
Leslie Martin
Exercises in modeling constant flows. These develop an understanding of basic Flow-Level structures through examples taken from a large variety of systems.
16 pages.

Beginner Modeling Exercises. Section 2. Mental simulation of Positive Feedback
Joseph Whelan
Simple exercises on positive feedback systems
15 pages.

Beginner Modeling Exercises. Section 3. Mental simulation of Negative Feedback
Helen Zhu
Simple exercises on negative feedback systems
23 pages.

Beginner Modeling Exercises. Section 4: Mental Simulation. Adding constant flows
Alan Coronado
Simple exercises introducing a constant flow to positive and negative feedback systems.
27 pages.

Beginner Modeling Exercises Section 5: Mental simulation of Combining Feedbacks in First Order System
Laughton Stanley and Helen Zhu
Simple exercises on systems that induce logistical growth.
28 pages.

MODELING

Graphical Integration Exercises Part 1: Exogenous Rates
A. Oh
An introduction to graphical integration in constant flows and flow functions with jumps.
19 pages.

Graphical Integration Exercises Part 2: Ramp Functions
Kevin Agatstein and Lucia Breierova
Graphical integration of linearly increasing and decreasing flows.
25 pages.

Graphical Integration Exercises Part 3: Combining Flows
Kevin Agatstein and Lucia Breierova
Graphical integration of combined input and output flows.
32 pages.

Graphical Integration Exercises. Part 4. Reverse Graphical Integration.
Laughton Stanley
Explanation and methodology of the reverse graphical integration process. Plotting net flow graphs from level graphs.
25 pages.

Graphical Integration Exercises. Part 5: Qualitative Graphical Integration
Manas Ratha
Exercises that develop an intuitive and qualitative understanding of the graphical integration process.
33 pages.

CASES AND EXERCISES

Building the Fish Banks Model & Renewable Resource Depletion
Joseph Whelan and Matthew Halbower
Description of the fish banks game and the making of a fish banks model.
57 pages.

Problems with Causal Loop Diagrams
George Richardson
A discussion about casual loop diagrams and their inherent problems.
13 pages.

Teaching System Dynamics: Looking at Epidemics
Will Glass-Husain
Subject matter for teaching System Dynamics using a game based on the spreading of an epidemic.
58 pages.

Unexpected Behaviors in Higher-Order Positive Feedback Loops
Aaron Ashford
A discussion on the possible behaviors that may arise in higher-order positive feedback loops.
21 pages.

Modeling Exercises. Section 2
Joseph Whelan
The first of a series of independent modeling experiences, exploring an urban dynamics model and offering a mental simulation exercise.
35 pages.

Oscillating System 2: Sustained Oscillation
Kevin Agatstein
A detailed explanation of the causes of sustained oscillation illustrated with two real-life examples.
31 pages.

The Credit Card Model
Manas Ratha
An exercise creating a credit card model in order to demonstrate a certain behavioral characteristic of complex systems: Gains in the short term, losses in the long term
27 pages.

SENSITIVITY AND SIMULATION

An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis
Lucia Breieriva and Mark Choudhari
An introduction to the concepts and methods of sensibility analysis in System Dynamics.
40 pages.

Dynamic Simulation Models: How Valid Are They?
Ramond Shreckengost
A look at various tests that can be applied in order to establish the validity of a model.
11 pages.

FREQUENT PROBLEMS AND ERRORS

Mistakes and Misunderstandings. Examining Dimensional Inconsistency
Michael Shayne Gary
Examination of a model that has dimensional inconsistency errors and suggestions for its improvement.
6 pages.

Mistakes and Misunderstanding: Use of Generic Structures and the Reality of Stocks and Flows.
Lucia Breierova
Examination and correction of a model forced to represent a generic structure, where levels do not reflect true system accumulations.
10 pages.

Mistakes and Misunderstandings: Table Functions
Leslie Martin
This article explains how to avoid mistakes and misunderstandings, and how to formulate table functions, and graphically defined nonlinear relationships which are robust and dimensionally consistent.
13 pages.

OPINION ARTICLES

A Skeptic's Guide to Computer Simulation Models
John Sterman
An overview of the different development techniques for simulation modeling, their characteristics, capacity and limitations.
25 pages.

Learning through System Dynamics as Preparation for the 21st Century
Jay W. Forrester
Notes from the author's 1994 Systems Thinking and Dynamic Modeling Conference about the aims and objectives that primary education based on system dynamics should achieve.
22 pages.

System dynamics, system thinking and soft OR
Jay W. Forrester
The author's opinion on the differences between System Dynamics, System Thinking and soft OR.
14 pages.

System Dynamics in School
Jay W. Forrester
Some educational experiences are discussed concerning System Dynamics in secondary education.
23 pages.

Designing the Future
Jay W. Forrester
The author discusses the possibility of applying System Dynamics to social science and the business environment.
11 pages.


CONFERENCES

XIX INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

1.- Power Plant Performance: Identification Of A Relationship Between Availability, Reliability And Productivity

2.- An SD Approach For Assessing An Eventual Peace Process In Colombia

3.- Building A Sustainable Strategic Advantage In The Third Millennium: A Case Method Approach

4.- Project Performance Corporation The Doing Of Model Verification And Validation: Balancing Cost And Theory

5.- Structure-Oriented Behavior Tests In Model Validation

6.- Applying System Dynamics To Scenario Based Software Project Management

7.- How To Define A Profitable And Sustainable Growth Policy In A Changing Market: A Case Study: A Small Publishing Company

8.- The Opportunity Cost Of Solving Problems: The Role Of Testing In Product Development

9.- The Development Of Internet- And Intranet Enabled Enterprise-Wide Knowledge Bases: The Case Of System Dynamics Applications In The United States Air Force, 1975-2000

10.- Do Numerical Simulation And Optimization Results Improve Manangement? Experimental Evidence

11.- Social Learning Laboratory For Urban Sustainability

12.- A Methodological Framework For Integrating Systems Thinking And System Dynamics

13.- Evaluating The Impact Of System Dynamics Based Learning Environments: Preliminary Study

14.- The Rotten Mango: The Effect Of Corruption On International Development Projects

15.- Bounded Rationality In The SD Approach For Energy Modelling

16.- A System Dynamics Analysis Of The Effects Of Capacity Limitations In A Multi-Level Production Chain

17.- Microworld For Training Traders In The Colombian Electricity Market

18.- System Dynamics Analysis Of Stability During Non-Equilibrium Stage In Physical Distribution

19.- Limits To Growth On The New Economy: An Exploration Of The Get Big Fast Strategy In Dot.Com's

20.- Implementing Formal Model Analysis

21.- A Simulation Methodology Unifying System Dynamics And Business Objects

22.- Dynamics In Spatial Logistic Chains

23.- Options In Source Code Documentation

24.- Business Modeling Process

25.- Physician Decisions As A Source Of Variation In Chronic Disease Outcomes

26.- Simulation Of Qualitiative Models To Support Business Scenario Analysis

27.- Genetic Simulated Annealing Algorithm With Selective Generation

28.- Hybrid Modelling: System Dynamics Combined With Multi-Criteria Analysis

29.- System Dynamics Practice In A Non-Ideal World: Modelling Defence Preparedness

30.- Value And Risk Evaluation Of Power Projects: A System Dynamics Approach

31.- Object Oriented Extensions To System Dynamics

32.- Industrial Dynamics To Systems Thinking

33.- Object Oriented Design Patterns And System Dynamics Components


XX INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

1.- Developing a Balanced Scorecard with System Dynamics.

2.- Optimal Neural Feedback Control for Carbon Tax Policy Gauging in Transportation.

3.- Autorregressive Models and System Dynamics: A Case Study for the Labour Market in Spain.

4.- Coordination Between Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy by Means of a Model of Dynamic Simulation.

5.- A System Dynamics Model to Analyze Investments in Power Generation in Colombia.

6.-Quick and Rigorous, Strategic and Participative: 12 Ways to Improve on the Expected Tradeoffs.

7.- A Scoping and Consensus Building Model for Understanding the Dynamics of a Blue-Green Algae Bloom.

8.- System Dynamics Applied to Epidemics.

9.- Studying a Multi-Dimensional ProblemUsing System Dynamics: The Case of Sustainability in the Semi-Arid Argane Forest in Morocco.

10.- Advancing the Frontiers of System Dynamics Through Higher Order of Paradox.

11.- Entrepreneurial Personal Drive Becoming a Limit to the Company Potential: An Organizational Dynamics Perspective from a UK Technology Start-up Case.

12.- Banking Back Office Processing Behavior: Considerations on a Process Activity Managed by Capacity Saturation Policies.

13.- Building a Sustainable, In-House System Dynamics Capability: How an Internal System Dynamics Group Can Develop a Distinctive Service and Become an Enduring Component of the Company's Operations.

14.- A System Dynamics Analysis of the Westray Mine Disaster.

15.- Long Term Consequences of Genetically Modified Crops in Agriculture.

16.- A Dynamic Theory of the Service Management: Implications for Managing Service Improvements Avoiding the 'Service Jungle'.

17.- Play with the Ants to Understand CASOS.

18.- When Do Minor Shortages Inflate to Great Bubbles?

19.- Policies Influencing the Diffusion of Instant Messaging.

20.- Policy Optimization in Dynamic Models with Genetic Algorithms.

21.- Economic Effects of Decentralization of Government with People Empowerment: An International Comparison of Four Asian and European Rural Localities.

22.- The Dynamic Spatial Simulation Modeling of teh Effects of Land Use Change on Avian Species.

23.- A Generic Tool Based on a System Dynamics Approach to Assess SME Business Stability and Help Designing Business Tactics and Action Plans within Transient, Non-Stationary Conditions.

24.- Business Transformation Success Dynamics: It's the Communication.

25.- Solutions to Improve Performance in the UK House Building Supply Chain: The Use of A System Dynamics Model.

26.- A System Dynamics Model for the UK Private House Building Supply Chain.

27.- Is Explicit Information Important for Performance in System Dynamics?

28.- Alternative Modeling Approaches: A Case Study in the Oil and Gas Industry.

29.- System Dynamics Model Development of the canary Islands for Supporting Strategic Public Decisions.

30.- Integrative Mechanisms in New Product Development Projects: Effect of Project Complexity on Project Performance: A System Dynamics Approach.

31.A Simulation Study of Domestic Rice Distribution Under New Japanese Food Law of 1994.

32.- A Dynamic Model for the Development of New Technologies for Ship Systems.

33.- Growing Vacationland by Retaining and Attracting Knowledge Workers.

34.- Environmental Carrying Capacity of the Seoul Metropolitan Area: Estimation, Implication and Limitations.

35.- Savings-Investments Model in Egypt.

36.- Repeated Overshoot and Collapse Behavior: An Example from the Petroleum Industry.

37.- Air Traffic Controller Manpower Planning Modeling: A Learning Platform for Understanding the Staffing Process.

38.- Modeling the Dynamic Complexity of the Energy Policymaking Process.

39.- Design of Information Systems: Simulating the Effectiveness of Knowledge Transfer Throughout the Systems Analysis Phase.

40.- State Policies on Self-Sufficiency in Agricultural Section of Iran.

41.- Symphony of Eigenvalues: A Prototype for Sonification in System Dynamics.

42.-System Approach to Business Rules.

43.- Dynamics of Schedule Presure in Software Projects.

44.- Use of Financial System Dynamics Models in Local Government.

45. A Historical Fit of a Model of the US Long Wave.

46.- SIMTRANS (Freight Transportation Simulation Model)

47.- Evaluating Economic Feasibility of Environmentally Sustainable Scenarios by a Backcasting Approach with ESCOT (Economic assessment of Sustainability Policies of Transport).

48.- Short Versus Long-Term Dynamics: The Example of Ecological Management.

49.- System Thinking by Stealth: How to 'Wash the Great Unwasted'?

50.- Decision Rules and assumptions in Overexploitation of Renewable Resources.

XXI INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

1.- The Obesity Problem. Is it a State In Mind ? Tarek Abdel-Hamid

2.- System Dynamics at the Design-Science Interface. Henk Akkermans

3.- Boom and Bust Shrimp Aquaculture. Steven Arquitt

4.- Misperception of Dynamics in Military Planning. Bjorn Tallak

5.- Models for National Planning. Gerald Barney

6.- Simulating Health and Social Care Delivery. Steffen Bayer

7.- A Sustainability Assessment of the Urban Rehabilitation Project. Salim Belyazid

8.- Managing Intellectual Capital through Interactive Learning Environments Based on System Dynamics and Accounting Models. Carmine Bianchi

9.- Using Simulation to Produce a Data Fusion Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Manmade and Natural Dusasters. Donald Brown

10.- Service Quality and Customer Abandonment. Massimiliano Caramia

11.- Twelve-Year-Olds Learning Mathematics with System Dynamics. Mariene de Fatima Ochoa

12.- Economic Dynamics in Mobile Service Industry. Yueping Chen

13.- An Application of a System Dynamics Model to Evaluate Information and System Performance. Ik Jae Chung

14.- A distributed System Dynamics-Based Framework for Modeling Virtual Organizations. Bryan Conneely

15.- Are you vMad to Go for Surgery? Risk assessment for Transmission of vCJD via Surgical Instruments. Stephen Curram

16.- Extreme Event Agenda Setting and Decision Making. Michael Deegan

17.- Building a Theory of Open Online Collaboration Using System Dynamics. Vedat Diker

18.- A Basis for Understanding Fishery Management Complexities. Richard Dudley

19.- Latin and South America: A Case Study of Emergent Geopolitical Viruses. Evan Ellis

20.- A Conceptual Model of Operating Internet-based B2C Business in fast-growing Industries. Yulin Fang

21.- Modeling Real Options to Switch Among Alternatives. David Ford

22.- The Dynamics of Resource Sharing and Organizational Slack in the Growing Multibusiness Firm. Michael Shayne

23.-A Simulation Based Approach to Understanding the Dynamics of the Transition from Product Manufacturer to Service Provider. Heiko Gebauer

24.- Understanding Schedule Unreliability: A Case Study of a Facility-Tooling Project. Nuno Gil

25.- A System Dynamics View of an Island Energy System. Paraskevas Gravouniotis

26.- Information Sharing to Reduce Fluctuations in Supply Chains: A Dynamic Feedback Approach. Baris Gunduz

27.- Dynamic Process Management towards Sustained Compliance and Benefit Clinical Research. Rita Hattemer-Apostel

28.- Modeling Human Behavior as a Factor in the Dynamics of an Outbreak of Pneumonic Plague. John Heinbokel.

29.- Acquiring Higher-Order Knowledge Using the System Dynamics Approach in Teaching Business Subjects. Stefanie Hillen

30.- Economic Dynamics of R&D: Analysis of Technology and Development. Olli-Pekka Hilmola

31.- Modern Electronics: Teaching Economics to High School Students with a System Dynamics Simulator. Gary Hirsch

32.- Constructing Numerical Reference Modes from Sparse Time Series. Peter Hovmand.

33.- Another Modeling Approach: using a Novice to Do the Job - Courage to Take a Risk and You Will Have a Star ! Chia-Ming Hsu

34.- Development of a Simulator for Social Dynamics and Agent-Based Models. Kazunari Ishida

35.- System Dynamic Modeling of Engineered Landfill Covers. Jacob Jacobson

36.- An Examination of the Timing of Investments for Pay TV Operators. Daniel Jarosch

37.- A System Dynamics Model of the Development Cycle for Future Mobility Vehicles. Taewoo Kang

38.- Understanding the Dynamics of Information System Use. Shivraj Kanungo

39.- Behavioral Causes of the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains. Elena Katok

40.- A Comparison of the Application of Performance Indicators, System Dynamics Models and the Holon Framework to Quality Assessment. Michael Kennedy.

41.- Policy and Outcome Contrasts in the Evaluation of the Effects of Structural Change in Swiss Mountain Agriculture. Birgit Kopainsky

42.- Methods of Communication in Urban Planning and Development. Lubomir Kostron.

43.- System Dynamics of Optimal Commencement Timing for Office Building Construction. Max Kummerow

44.- Industry Evolution: A Dynamic Behavioral Model. Martin Kunc

45.- Dyadic Dynamics in Interpersonal Cycles. Harold Kurstedt

46.- Models of Attitude and Belief Change from the Perspective of System Dynamics.. Ralph Levine

47.- On the Confounding of Overshoot and Collapse Predictions by Economic Dynamics. Corey Lofdahl

48.- Lessons From Simple Stock and Flow Models. Roderick MacDonald

49.- System Dynamics and a Product-Market Matrix for Strategic Planning. Ali Mashayekhi

50.- On the Relation between System Dynamics and Soft Systems Methodology in Consulting. Stephen McIntosh

51.- Why Customer Choose Your Product. Rutger Mooy

52.- Peer Influence en Educational Reform. Don Morris

53.- System Thinking and Economics Teaching. Alfredo Moscardini

54.- System Dynamics in Six Sigma Practice. Paul Newton.

55.- Dairy Policy and Price Volatility. Charles F.Nicholson

56.- Dynamics of a System as a Process of Realization of its Potential. Grigorii Pushnoi.

57.- A Dynamic Model of Spatial Planning in Metroplotan Areas. Jaziar Radianti.

58.- Methodological Problems in the Formulation and Validation of System Dynamics Models Incorporating Soft Variables. Santanu Roy

59.- Development of Multiplanyer Games through Group Modeling. Morten Ruud.

60.- Modeling the Forest or Modeling the Trees. Nadine Schieritz.

61.- Linking Balanced Scorecard to System Dynamics. Frank Schoeneborn.

62.- Geniusys: Systematically Developing Genius. Rohita Singh


More information about courses